욕지도https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/10/05/south-koreas-opposition-wants-a-hard-line-on-north-korea/
Opinion: South Korea’s opposition tells Biden: Get tougher on North Korea
Time may be running out for the Biden administration to work with a government in South Korea that wants to engage in new diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. If the opposition conservative party takes over, its leaders say they will take a harder line — and they are calling on Washington to do the same.
Pyongyang has been signaling both provocation and outreach. Just last week, North Korea conducted the latest in a series of missile tests. The Kim regime claimed it had developed a new hypersonic missile to add to the new cruise missile and train-launched ballistic missiles it also tested last month. But even as North Korean officials accuse the United States and South Korea of "hostile policy" at the United Nations, Pyongyang restored a North-South communications hotline Monday, mixing its belligerence with diplomatic gestures.
Amid this commotion and confusion, the leadership of South Korea’s conservative opposition, the People Power Party, came to Washington late last month to deliver a clear message about Kim’s strategy: Don’t take the bait. The opposition wants to ramp up pressure on the North, an approach opposite to that of incumbent President Moon Jae-in, who is serving his last year in office.
“The Korean public definitely wants some changes here in our joint stance towards North Korea,” PPP President Lee Jun-seok told me in an interview. The 36-year-old, Harvard-educated politician is the new face of a younger generation of South Korea conservatives. The PPP presidential candidate, former prosecutor general Yoon Seok-youl, is doing well in the polls — and his party could come to power if it wins the next national election in March.
Before his single term ends, Moon is making one last push to start new nuclear and peace negotiations with the North. Moon’s latest idea, which he announced in New York during his speech last month at the U.N. General Assembly, is for both sides to officially declare an end to the Korean War as a first step toward denuclearization and peace. (The 1950-1953 Korean War ended merely with an armistice that still holds today.) The conservative opposition is warning against that move, saying it will only reward Kim for his provocations.
“The Korean public now believes everything we do with North Korea has to be done in a reciprocal manner,” Lee claimed. “And we expect the Biden administration to do the same with regards to the end of war declaration and denuclearization.”
The end-of-war declaration is not likely to get much traction; it has been tried and failed before. But the South Korean opposition not only wants the Biden team to reject Moon’s plan — it is also calling for more sanctions on the North and an increased emphasis on human rights issues, to increase the leverage of the international community vis-a-vis Pyongyang.
“As long as there is not a clear statement of denuclearization from Kim Jong Un, the Biden administration should continue to strengthen its sanctions against North Korea,” said conservative parliamentarian Thae Yong-ho, who was a top North Korean diplomat before he defected with his family to South Korea. “The easing of economic sanctions will only justify the possession of nuclear weapons. So, we should continue to send the message to the North Korean people that Kim Jong Un’s choices are wrong.”
Of course, sanctions and pressure haven’t produced denuclearization so far, partly because China has undermined that strategy over the years. But the South Korean conservatives are pledging to change that dynamic as well. Lee told me his party wants South Korea to take a larger role working with the United States and its partners to counter China’s malign actions around Asia.
The conservative party wants to rebuild trilateral ties among South Korea, Japan and the United States, said Lee. South Korea can be a good substitute in the global supply chain as countries seek alternatives to China. And South Korea under the conservatives would be open to joining multilateral groups such as the Quad, a diplomatic construct that currently includes the United States, Japan, Australia and India.
“The Moon government chose to be friends to nobody, in an effort to avoid becoming an enemy of anybody,” Lee said. “[South Korea] now has to make a choice in terms of whether we are leaning towards China or the U.S.”
It’s true that the Moon government has sought to be a balancer between the two superpowers, while doing everything conceivable to encourage engagement with the North. That doesn’t jibe with the Biden plan to rally Asian allies to cooperate against China while giving Kim the cold shoulder. If the PPP were to govern as Lee predicts, it would be more in line with the Biden administration’s approach to Asia.
The administration must also recognize that if North Korea isn’t interested in real negotiations, a switch of government in Seoul could help the United States keep up the pressure on both Pyongyang and Beijing. In an odd way, the South Korean conservatives and the liberal Biden administration could end up being a good match.
But in the end, there’s no solution to the North Korean nuclear issue that can avoid dealing directly with Kim, who continues to amass new and dangerous weapons. Sooner or later, hopefully from a position of strength, Washington and Seoul will have to try again to start substantive negotiations with Pyongyang.
“The choice between sanctions and diplomacy is a false one. You need both,” said Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation. “If there was an easy solution to the North Korea nuclear problem, somebody would have come up with it already.”
Opinion: South Korea’s opposition tells Biden: Get tougher on North Korea
Time may be running out for the Biden administration to work with a government in South Korea that wants to engage in new diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. If the opposition conservative party takes over, its leaders say they will take a harder line — and they are calling on Washington to do the same.
Pyongyang has been signaling both provocation and outreach. Just last week, North Korea conducted the latest in a series of missile tests. The Kim regime claimed it had developed a new hypersonic missile to add to the new cruise missile and train-launched ballistic missiles it also tested last month. But even as North Korean officials accuse the United States and South Korea of "hostile policy" at the United Nations, Pyongyang restored a North-South communications hotline Monday, mixing its belligerence with diplomatic gestures.
Amid this commotion and confusion, the leadership of South Korea’s conservative opposition, the People Power Party, came to Washington late last month to deliver a clear message about Kim’s strategy: Don’t take the bait. The opposition wants to ramp up pressure on the North, an approach opposite to that of incumbent President Moon Jae-in, who is serving his last year in office.
“The Korean public definitely wants some changes here in our joint stance towards North Korea,” PPP President Lee Jun-seok told me in an interview. The 36-year-old, Harvard-educated politician is the new face of a younger generation of South Korea conservatives. The PPP presidential candidate, former prosecutor general Yoon Seok-youl, is doing well in the polls — and his party could come to power if it wins the next national election in March.
Before his single term ends, Moon is making one last push to start new nuclear and peace negotiations with the North. Moon’s latest idea, which he announced in New York during his speech last month at the U.N. General Assembly, is for both sides to officially declare an end to the Korean War as a first step toward denuclearization and peace. (The 1950-1953 Korean War ended merely with an armistice that still holds today.) The conservative opposition is warning against that move, saying it will only reward Kim for his provocations.
“The Korean public now believes everything we do with North Korea has to be done in a reciprocal manner,” Lee claimed. “And we expect the Biden administration to do the same with regards to the end of war declaration and denuclearization.”
The end-of-war declaration is not likely to get much traction; it has been tried and failed before. But the South Korean opposition not only wants the Biden team to reject Moon’s plan — it is also calling for more sanctions on the North and an increased emphasis on human rights issues, to increase the leverage of the international community vis-a-vis Pyongyang.
“As long as there is not a clear statement of denuclearization from Kim Jong Un, the Biden administration should continue to strengthen its sanctions against North Korea,” said conservative parliamentarian Thae Yong-ho, who was a top North Korean diplomat before he defected with his family to South Korea. “The easing of economic sanctions will only justify the possession of nuclear weapons. So, we should continue to send the message to the North Korean people that Kim Jong Un’s choices are wrong.”
Of course, sanctions and pressure haven’t produced denuclearization so far, partly because China has undermined that strategy over the years. But the South Korean conservatives are pledging to change that dynamic as well. Lee told me his party wants South Korea to take a larger role working with the United States and its partners to counter China’s malign actions around Asia.
The conservative party wants to rebuild trilateral ties among South Korea, Japan and the United States, said Lee. South Korea can be a good substitute in the global supply chain as countries seek alternatives to China. And South Korea under the conservatives would be open to joining multilateral groups such as the Quad, a diplomatic construct that currently includes the United States, Japan, Australia and India.
“The Moon government chose to be friends to nobody, in an effort to avoid becoming an enemy of anybody,” Lee said. “[South Korea] now has to make a choice in terms of whether we are leaning towards China or the U.S.”
It’s true that the Moon government has sought to be a balancer between the two superpowers, while doing everything conceivable to encourage engagement with the North. That doesn’t jibe with the Biden plan to rally Asian allies to cooperate against China while giving Kim the cold shoulder. If the PPP were to govern as Lee predicts, it would be more in line with the Biden administration’s approach to Asia.
The administration must also recognize that if North Korea isn’t interested in real negotiations, a switch of government in Seoul could help the United States keep up the pressure on both Pyongyang and Beijing. In an odd way, the South Korean conservatives and the liberal Biden administration could end up being a good match.
But in the end, there’s no solution to the North Korean nuclear issue that can avoid dealing directly with Kim, who continues to amass new and dangerous weapons. Sooner or later, hopefully from a position of strength, Washington and Seoul will have to try again to start substantive negotiations with Pyongyang.
“The choice between sanctions and diplomacy is a false one. You need both,” said Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation. “If there was an easy solution to the North Korea nuclear problem, somebody would have come up with it already.”
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