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욕지도https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/02/16/inflation-will-be-harder-to-bring-down-than-markets-think
Inflation will be harder to bring down than markets think
Investors are betting on good times. The likelier prospect is turbulence
Given how woefully stock and bond portfolios have performed over the past year or so, you may not have noticed that financial markets are floating high on optimism. Yet there is no other way to describe today’s investors, who since the autumn have increasingly bet that inflation, the world economy’s biggest problem, will fall away without much fuss. The result, many think, will be cuts in interest rates towards the end of 2023, which will help the world’s major economies—and most importantly America—avoid a recession. Investors are pricing stocks for a Goldilocks economy in which companies’ profits grow healthily while the cost of capital falls.
In anticipation of this welcome turn of events the s&p 500 index of American stocks has risen by nearly 8% since the start of the year. Companies are valued at about 18 times their forward earnings—low by post-pandemic standards, but at the high end of the range that prevailed between 2002 and 2019. And in 2024 those earnings are expected to surge by almost 10%.
It is not just American markets that have jumped. European stocks have risen even more, thanks partly to a warm winter that has curbed energy prices. Money has poured into emerging economies, which are enjoying the twin blessings of China abandoning its zero-covid policy and a cheaper dollar, the result of expectations of looser monetary policy in America.
This is a rosy picture. Unfortunately, as we explain this week, it is probably misguided. The world’s battle with inflation is far from over. And that means markets could be in for a nasty correction.
For a sign of what has got investors’ hopes up, look at America’s latest consumer-price figures, released on February 14th. They showed less inflation over the three months to January than at any time since the start of 2021. Many of the factors which first caused inflation to take off have dissipated. Global supply chains are no longer overwhelmed by surging demand for goods, nor disrupted by the pandemic. As demand for garden furniture and games consoles has cooled, goods prices are falling and there is a glut of microchips. The oil price is lower today than it was before Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago. The picture of falling inflation is repeated around the world: the headline rate is falling in 25 of the 36 mainly rich countries in the oecd.
Yet fluctuations in headline inflation often mask the underlying trend. Look into the details, and it is easy to see that the inflation problem is not fixed. America’s “core” prices, which exclude volatile food and energy, grew at an annualised pace of 4.6% over the past three months, and have started gently accelerating. The main source of inflation is now the services sector, which is more exposed to labour costs. In America, Britain, Canada and New Zealand wage growth is still much higher than is consistent with the 2% inflation targets of their respective central banks; pay growth is lower in the euro area, but rising in important economies such as Spain.
That should not be a surprise, given the strength of labour markets. Six of the g7 group of big rich countries enjoy an unemployment rate at or close to the lowest seen this century. America’s is the lowest it has been since 1969. It is hard to see how underlying inflation can dissipate while labour markets stay so tight. They are keeping many economies on course for inflation that does not fall below 3-5% or so. That would be less scary than the experience of the past two years. But it would be a big problem for central bankers, who are judged against their targets. It would also blow a hole in investors’ optimistic vision.
Whatever happens next, market turbulence seems likely. In recent weeks bond investors have begun moving towards a prediction that central banks do not cut interest rates, but instead keep them high. It is conceivable—just—that rates stay high without seriously denting the economy, while inflation continues to fall. If that happens, markets would be buoyed by robust economic growth. Yet persistently higher rates would inflict losses on bond investors, and continuing elevated risk-free returns would make it harder to justify stocks trading at a large multiple of their earnings.
It is far more likely, however, that high rates will hurt the economy. In the modern era central banks have been bad at pulling off “soft landings”, in which they complete a cycle of interest-rate rises without an ensuing recession. History is full of examples of investors wrongly anticipating strong growth towards the end of a bout of monetary tightening, only for a downturn to strike. That has been true even in conditions that are less inflationary than today’s. Were America the only economy to enter recession, much of the rest of the world would still be dragged down, especially if a flight to safety strengthened the dollar.
Inflation will be harder to bring down than markets think
Investors are betting on good times. The likelier prospect is turbulence
Given how woefully stock and bond portfolios have performed over the past year or so, you may not have noticed that financial markets are floating high on optimism. Yet there is no other way to describe today’s investors, who since the autumn have increasingly bet that inflation, the world economy’s biggest problem, will fall away without much fuss. The result, many think, will be cuts in interest rates towards the end of 2023, which will help the world’s major economies—and most importantly America—avoid a recession. Investors are pricing stocks for a Goldilocks economy in which companies’ profits grow healthily while the cost of capital falls.
In anticipation of this welcome turn of events the s&p 500 index of American stocks has risen by nearly 8% since the start of the year. Companies are valued at about 18 times their forward earnings—low by post-pandemic standards, but at the high end of the range that prevailed between 2002 and 2019. And in 2024 those earnings are expected to surge by almost 10%.
It is not just American markets that have jumped. European stocks have risen even more, thanks partly to a warm winter that has curbed energy prices. Money has poured into emerging economies, which are enjoying the twin blessings of China abandoning its zero-covid policy and a cheaper dollar, the result of expectations of looser monetary policy in America.
This is a rosy picture. Unfortunately, as we explain this week, it is probably misguided. The world’s battle with inflation is far from over. And that means markets could be in for a nasty correction.
For a sign of what has got investors’ hopes up, look at America’s latest consumer-price figures, released on February 14th. They showed less inflation over the three months to January than at any time since the start of 2021. Many of the factors which first caused inflation to take off have dissipated. Global supply chains are no longer overwhelmed by surging demand for goods, nor disrupted by the pandemic. As demand for garden furniture and games consoles has cooled, goods prices are falling and there is a glut of microchips. The oil price is lower today than it was before Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago. The picture of falling inflation is repeated around the world: the headline rate is falling in 25 of the 36 mainly rich countries in the oecd.
Yet fluctuations in headline inflation often mask the underlying trend. Look into the details, and it is easy to see that the inflation problem is not fixed. America’s “core” prices, which exclude volatile food and energy, grew at an annualised pace of 4.6% over the past three months, and have started gently accelerating. The main source of inflation is now the services sector, which is more exposed to labour costs. In America, Britain, Canada and New Zealand wage growth is still much higher than is consistent with the 2% inflation targets of their respective central banks; pay growth is lower in the euro area, but rising in important economies such as Spain.
That should not be a surprise, given the strength of labour markets. Six of the g7 group of big rich countries enjoy an unemployment rate at or close to the lowest seen this century. America’s is the lowest it has been since 1969. It is hard to see how underlying inflation can dissipate while labour markets stay so tight. They are keeping many economies on course for inflation that does not fall below 3-5% or so. That would be less scary than the experience of the past two years. But it would be a big problem for central bankers, who are judged against their targets. It would also blow a hole in investors’ optimistic vision.
Whatever happens next, market turbulence seems likely. In recent weeks bond investors have begun moving towards a prediction that central banks do not cut interest rates, but instead keep them high. It is conceivable—just—that rates stay high without seriously denting the economy, while inflation continues to fall. If that happens, markets would be buoyed by robust economic growth. Yet persistently higher rates would inflict losses on bond investors, and continuing elevated risk-free returns would make it harder to justify stocks trading at a large multiple of their earnings.
It is far more likely, however, that high rates will hurt the economy. In the modern era central banks have been bad at pulling off “soft landings”, in which they complete a cycle of interest-rate rises without an ensuing recession. History is full of examples of investors wrongly anticipating strong growth towards the end of a bout of monetary tightening, only for a downturn to strike. That has been true even in conditions that are less inflationary than today’s. Were America the only economy to enter recession, much of the rest of the world would still be dragged down, especially if a flight to safety strengthened the dollar.
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美 도매물가도 다시 꿈틀…1월 PPI, 작년 6월 이후 최대폭 상승
입력2023.02.16. 오후 11:32 수정2023.02.16. 오후 11:33 기사원문
강건택 기자
실업수당 청구건수는 5주연속 20만건 미만…연준 '매파 유지' 힘실어
(뉴욕=연합뉴스) 강건택 특파원 = 미국의 도매 물가도 새해 들어 다시 상승 압력을 받고 있다.
미 노동부는 1월 생산자물가지수(PPI)가 전월보다 0.7%, 전년 동월보다 6.0% 각각 올랐다고 16일(현지시간) 밝혔다.
전월 대비 상승률은 지난해 6월 이후 가장 큰 폭이다. 지난해 12월 0.2% 하락했다가 다시 상승세로 돌아섰다.
지난달 PPI는 블룸버그통신이 집계한 전문가 전망치(전월 대비 0.4%, 전년 대비 5.4%)를 상당히 큰 폭으로 상회했다.
전년 동월 대비로는 상승폭이 12월(6.5%)보다 줄어 7개월 연속 '감속'했으나, 여전히 미 연방준비제도(Fed·연준)의 물가상승률 목표치 2%의 3배에 이른다.
에너지와 식품 등을 제외한 근원 PPI는 전월보다 0.5%, 전년 동월보다 5.4% 각각 상승한 것으로 집계됐다. 전월 대비 근원 PPI 상승률은 최근 10개월간 가장 높은 수준이다.
이러한 결과는 미국의 인플레이션이 빠르게 진정되지 않고 오래 고착화할 가능성이 크다는 점을 시사한다고 미 언론들은 분석했다.
앞서 발표된 1월 소비자물가지수(CPI)도 전월보다 0.5%, 전년 동월보다 6.4% 각각 올라 시장 전망치를 훌쩍 넘어선 바 있다.
이처럼 인플레이션 장기화 우려를 높이는 지표들이 잇따라 발표되면서 연준이 종전 예상보다 더 많이 금리를 올리고, 더 오래 높은 금리를 유지할 가능성이 커졌다는 전망에 힘이 실린다.
지난 1년간 공격적인 금리인상에도 불구하고 미국의 노동시장이 아직도 강력하다는 사실도 연준의 매파(통화긴축 선호)적 스탠스 유지를 뒷받침하는 근거가 되고 있다.
이날 노동부에 따르면 지난주(2월 5∼11일) 신규 실업수당 청구 건수는 19만4천 건으로 전주보다 1천 건 감소했다.
월스트리트저널(WSJ)이 집계한 전문가 전망치(20만 건)를 하회한 것은 물론 5주 연속 20만 건 미만을 기록해 역사적으로 낮은 수준을 유지했다.
다만 최소 2주 이상 실업수당을 신청하는 '계속 실업수당' 청구 건수는 170만 건으로 1만6천 건 증가했다.
美 도매물가도 다시 꿈틀…1월 PPI, 작년 6월 이후 최대폭 상승
입력2023.02.16. 오후 11:32 수정2023.02.16. 오후 11:33 기사원문
강건택 기자
실업수당 청구건수는 5주연속 20만건 미만…연준 '매파 유지' 힘실어
(뉴욕=연합뉴스) 강건택 특파원 = 미국의 도매 물가도 새해 들어 다시 상승 압력을 받고 있다.
미 노동부는 1월 생산자물가지수(PPI)가 전월보다 0.7%, 전년 동월보다 6.0% 각각 올랐다고 16일(현지시간) 밝혔다.
전월 대비 상승률은 지난해 6월 이후 가장 큰 폭이다. 지난해 12월 0.2% 하락했다가 다시 상승세로 돌아섰다.
지난달 PPI는 블룸버그통신이 집계한 전문가 전망치(전월 대비 0.4%, 전년 대비 5.4%)를 상당히 큰 폭으로 상회했다.
전년 동월 대비로는 상승폭이 12월(6.5%)보다 줄어 7개월 연속 '감속'했으나, 여전히 미 연방준비제도(Fed·연준)의 물가상승률 목표치 2%의 3배에 이른다.
에너지와 식품 등을 제외한 근원 PPI는 전월보다 0.5%, 전년 동월보다 5.4% 각각 상승한 것으로 집계됐다. 전월 대비 근원 PPI 상승률은 최근 10개월간 가장 높은 수준이다.
이러한 결과는 미국의 인플레이션이 빠르게 진정되지 않고 오래 고착화할 가능성이 크다는 점을 시사한다고 미 언론들은 분석했다.
앞서 발표된 1월 소비자물가지수(CPI)도 전월보다 0.5%, 전년 동월보다 6.4% 각각 올라 시장 전망치를 훌쩍 넘어선 바 있다.
이처럼 인플레이션 장기화 우려를 높이는 지표들이 잇따라 발표되면서 연준이 종전 예상보다 더 많이 금리를 올리고, 더 오래 높은 금리를 유지할 가능성이 커졌다는 전망에 힘이 실린다.
지난 1년간 공격적인 금리인상에도 불구하고 미국의 노동시장이 아직도 강력하다는 사실도 연준의 매파(통화긴축 선호)적 스탠스 유지를 뒷받침하는 근거가 되고 있다.
이날 노동부에 따르면 지난주(2월 5∼11일) 신규 실업수당 청구 건수는 19만4천 건으로 전주보다 1천 건 감소했다.
월스트리트저널(WSJ)이 집계한 전문가 전망치(20만 건)를 하회한 것은 물론 5주 연속 20만 건 미만을 기록해 역사적으로 낮은 수준을 유지했다.
다만 최소 2주 이상 실업수당을 신청하는 '계속 실업수당' 청구 건수는 170만 건으로 1만6천 건 증가했다.
블라디미르게레로북한을 아는 사람은 김성태가 중국 가서 북한 애들 만나는 것도 이화영이 없으면 힘들다는 사실을 다 안다~ 화영아 말 되는 소리를 해라
tj1.노트북 2.곽윤기